Among the sports betting public there's a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That's not really surprising, since there doesn't seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater "lock" that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.
First, let's examine the case against preseason NFL wagering. Clearly the biggest argument against it is the simple fact that the games don't count. Though spots will exist during regular season games when the motivation and preparation of individual teams may vary, in theory both teams want to win. That's not always the case in preseason football, since different coaches have different goals. Some might want to just evaluate their personnel, others might want to establish a winning attitude, and all coaches want to keep their stars from getting injured. Factor in all of the variables and conflicting agendas, the preseason naysayer would argue, and there are just too many unknowns to consider taking a financial position on.
The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the "better" team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the "better" teams have not only more 'marquee names' to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they'll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They'll have no need to "create a winning attitude", nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the "better" teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.
NFL 'doormats', meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They've often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They've often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they're in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a 'meaningless' preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.
Even among teams that don't worry much about wins and losses during the preseason, they don't want to go into the season losing them all. For that reason, one of the most successful preseason situations over the past decade and a half have been teams that lost their first two preseason affairs. During that span, 0-2 teams have hit right around 60% against the spread.
There may be no greater determining factor of a team's preseason success than the philosophy of their head coach. Some coaches just don't like to lose *any* game, and usually these hyper-competitive teams are good preseason bets. Bill Parcells, for example, was legendary for his serious approach to preseason games. The coaches that he mentored like the NY Giants' Tom Coughlin have to some extent carried on this legacy. While the "good" preseason coaches are often reflected in the pointspreads assigned to their team, a motivated team is almost always worth a look.
The smart preseason handicapper makes use of the Internet, and more specifically uses it to follow the local sports media of NFL teams. During NFL preseasons, teams' beat writers are anxious to write stories and need to fill articles but have little in the way of "real" news to write about. As a result, a handicapper can frequently find valuable details like a coach's goals for the game, playing time for key players, and specific strategies that will be implemented. Occasionally, coaches will come out and say that they're more interested in evaluating certain players for certain positions than they are in the outcome of the game. A thorough evaluation of this type of media coverage can often produce not only teams to play "on", but teams with priorities other than winning to play "against".
In closing, the best advice is to not be afraid of wagering on preseason football, but to not get too excited about it either. It's a good chance to grind out a small profit, but definitely not the moneymaking opportunity of a lifetime. There will be plenty of other"and better"football wagering opportunities down the road. Discipline and self-control is always in your best interest when betting on sports, and that certainly is the case in the preseason NFL.
First, let's examine the case against preseason NFL wagering. Clearly the biggest argument against it is the simple fact that the games don't count. Though spots will exist during regular season games when the motivation and preparation of individual teams may vary, in theory both teams want to win. That's not always the case in preseason football, since different coaches have different goals. Some might want to just evaluate their personnel, others might want to establish a winning attitude, and all coaches want to keep their stars from getting injured. Factor in all of the variables and conflicting agendas, the preseason naysayer would argue, and there are just too many unknowns to consider taking a financial position on.
The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the "better" team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the "better" teams have not only more 'marquee names' to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they'll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They'll have no need to "create a winning attitude", nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the "better" teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.
NFL 'doormats', meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They've often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They've often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they're in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a 'meaningless' preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.
Even among teams that don't worry much about wins and losses during the preseason, they don't want to go into the season losing them all. For that reason, one of the most successful preseason situations over the past decade and a half have been teams that lost their first two preseason affairs. During that span, 0-2 teams have hit right around 60% against the spread.
There may be no greater determining factor of a team's preseason success than the philosophy of their head coach. Some coaches just don't like to lose *any* game, and usually these hyper-competitive teams are good preseason bets. Bill Parcells, for example, was legendary for his serious approach to preseason games. The coaches that he mentored like the NY Giants' Tom Coughlin have to some extent carried on this legacy. While the "good" preseason coaches are often reflected in the pointspreads assigned to their team, a motivated team is almost always worth a look.
The smart preseason handicapper makes use of the Internet, and more specifically uses it to follow the local sports media of NFL teams. During NFL preseasons, teams' beat writers are anxious to write stories and need to fill articles but have little in the way of "real" news to write about. As a result, a handicapper can frequently find valuable details like a coach's goals for the game, playing time for key players, and specific strategies that will be implemented. Occasionally, coaches will come out and say that they're more interested in evaluating certain players for certain positions than they are in the outcome of the game. A thorough evaluation of this type of media coverage can often produce not only teams to play "on", but teams with priorities other than winning to play "against".
In closing, the best advice is to not be afraid of wagering on preseason football, but to not get too excited about it either. It's a good chance to grind out a small profit, but definitely not the moneymaking opportunity of a lifetime. There will be plenty of other"and better"football wagering opportunities down the road. Discipline and self-control is always in your best interest when betting on sports, and that certainly is the case in the preseason NFL.
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer who covers travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.
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